I have been disappointed with the process of some news reporters jumping to their predictions based on their own narrative without showing us all the data. They have repeatedly demonstrated that they are continuously wrong. Meanwhile a few have been weeks ahead of the curve by simply applying their own logic and questions and sharing the data they have. So I am hoping to share some relevant current data and let you draw your own conclusions.
I found a CDC covid19 stats page and did some simple math which yielded unexpected results. Stats Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
When drawing your own projections from this data please note that future Covid19 death rates will surely be increasing over the near term future. However rates from other causes should stay more stable. For some relative context I have also listed Pneumonia deaths during the same time period *, *However i Included only Pneumonia unrelated to Covid19 cases.
During the period of Feb 1 to April 11, 2020:
Covid19 deaths 13,130 of 582,565 deaths of all causes or 2.2% of all deaths
Pneumonia deaths* 39,817 of 582,565 deaths of all causes or 6.8% of all deaths. *However only Pneumonia unrelated to Covid19 cases.
To Recap, during the Convid19 pandemic can claim 2.2% of all the deaths in US have been related to Covid19 wihile 6.8% of deaths are related to Pneumonia (without any Covid19).
Also so during the 1st month of lock down only 1 in 40+ deaths were deceased directly from Covid19.
So how have Covid19 deaths broken down by CDC age groups in the USA?
Ages 0-1 0 covid19 deaths of 3,084 deaths or 0.0% of deaths in this age group
Ages 1-4 2 covid19 deaths of 608 deaths or 0.3% of deaths in this age group
Ages 5-14 1 covid19 deaths of 902 deaths or 0.25% of deaths in this age group Ages 15-24 13 covid19 deaths of 5,204 deaths or 0.25% of deaths in this age group
Ages 25-34 113 covid19 deaths of 11,017 deaths or 1% of deaths in this age groupA
ges 35-44 289 covid19 deaths of 15,826 deaths or 1.8% of deaths in this age group
Ages 45-54 751 covid19 deaths of 30,494 deaths or 2% of deaths in this age group
Ages 55-64 1,773 covid19 deaths of 73,842 deaths or 2.4% of deaths in this age group
Ages 65-74 2,919 covid19 deaths of 114,652 deaths or 2.5% of deaths in this age group
Ages 75-84 3,576 covid19 deaths of 144,652 deaths or 2.5% of deaths in this age group
Ages 85&up 3,693 covid19 deaths of 182,766 deaths or 2.2% of deaths in this age group.
In summary 2.2% of all deaths were due to Covid19 so far during this pandemic. with little statistical cause and effect to you ages is you are 45 or over.
Early Projection Models
it is not bad that the early projections models were exponentially far off. High numbers better ready logistics when we must plan for the unknown with a large downside potential. Stop by any fast food restaurant during lunch rush and you will not find the manager ordering food for next week. Instead she is leading the effort to server food.
Sill there was time in teh manager’s week for ordering and time in her day for pre-rush preparedness and post-rush cleanup. In a pre-pandamic mode we must aim high to prepare. During the actual pandemic we must quickly adjust when real data becomes available.
However, each week that goes by yields more accurate data on important subjects. So each week projections of the destruction should go down significantly as worst case projections get replaced by real world data.
Social distancing and PPE
Different rules were enacted in different states and countries with similar results. So new data should be analyzed on practical subjects like social distancing and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) as we prepare to get back to work. In a rapidly changing data situation we need to be the people who learn to forget what we knew and replace it with what we now know. Holding on to what did not work keeps unnecessary limits so are destined to fail.
Anti-Body tests are coming but Vaccines?
There are 2 widely effective methods of long term societal protections from known diseases. Before we had vaccines populations naturally developed Herd Immunity from diseases. Today we can test herd immunity with Antibody tests. Antibody tests can tell if you have a history of the virus and have protected yourself with antibodies to the virus. Country’s who were effected ahead of the USA and who have had earlier access to antibody tests seam to be revealing that surprising numbers of people have recovered from Covid 19 with no symptoms at all. While other countries have seen the virus hospitalizations trending down unrelated to the numbers of tests that were done. Of course an effective Vaccine would help but it is too early to know how effective the vaccines would be over time. For example the same Polio Vaccine has been very effective year after year while the Flu shots need to be created each year and each has unpredictable results.